2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
Published: Jul 10, 2025
Created by: Eric Webb
Created by: Eric Webb
The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season appears to be overall than the last few years
Becomes more nebulous and nuanced
Becomes more nebulous and nuanced
An often overlooked element in seasonal hurricane forecasts is how the tropical troposphere will respond to an increasingly warmer background climate. While sea surface temperatures have been quite warm lately compared to static 30-year base lines, the upper troposphere has been warming at an even faster rate, with this year's tropical troposphere being the most stable in the entire satellite era, consistent with a long-term stabilization trend (figure below). This long-term, increasingly stable trend in the tropical troposphere is also consistent w/ what's expected from climate change. The increasing stabilization of the tropical troposphere is due to moist adiabatic adjustment in the tropics. Moist adiabatic adjustment causes the deep-layer temperature profile to stabilize in the tropics, w/ the upper troposphere warming faster than the lower-mid troposphere due to greater latent heat release in the mid-upper troposphere. The combination of more marginal lapse rates & greater saturation vapor pressure deficits also makes dry/stable air intrusions more effective at inhibiting tropical convection in a warmer mean climate (e.g. Chou & Neelin (2004)) (figure below). Simply put, there's a lot more to seasonal hurricane forecasting than high SST anomalies.
ERA-5 Reanalysis Global Tropics [20°S-20°N] 850mb Air Temperature minus
250mb Air Temperature (°C) for April-June (1979-2025) from NOAA ESRL WRIT
250mb Air Temperature (°C) for April-June (1979-2025) from NOAA ESRL WRIT
Tropical Troposphere Moist Adiabatic Adjustment to a Warming Climate
It is worth noting that seasonal hurricane forecasts that rely on the persistence of early spring SST anomalies into the hurricane season have been struggling more of late, perhaps because it is getting harder for the climate system to mask external influences on the basin. Imho, mid-late spring and early summer SSTs in the Atlantic are largely at the mercy of "external" dynamical factors, such as the strength of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool, the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), West African Monsoon (WAM), El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and large-scale behavior of the Tropical Hadley Cell. All of these phenomena (among others not mentioned here) help to drive the persistent Rossby Wave pattern in/around the Atlantic. Persistent Rossby Waves impart wind stress anomalies over the Atlantic that then drive SST anomalies which feedback onto the wave pattern as convective heating is generated "locally" in the Atlantic. Such feedbacks can include modulating ENSO behavior (references), the West African Monsoon (references), and a Gill type response (references). Here, this Gill type response involves latent heat release over top of positive SST anomalies, with the latent heat release from convection being advected downstream or eastward of the convection due to the mean easterly flow in the tropics. The hydrostatic response to this latent heat release leads to upper level highs and lower-level cyclones developing poleward and westward of this latent heating and opposing signed anomalies upstream/to the east. Ultimately, this additional latent heating more quickly erodes cold-core Tropical Upper Tropospheric Troughs (TUTTs) and causes them to shift poleward and eastward into the subtropics, reducing the deep-layer wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic.
Additionally, other secondary feedbacks from warm (or cool) SSTs are important to consider. For example, a decrease in Saharan Air Layer/dust and increase in solar radiation that warms the sea surface can be partly attributed to a deeper/more well-mixed boundary layer driven by warm SSTs & vis versa when the Atlantic is cooler. Another example are wind-evaporation-sst (WES) feedbacks, in which SST anomalies in the Eastern subtropical Atlantic (NW of Africa) propagate southwestward in late spring & summer to the tropical Atlantic (references). WES feedbacks are also a vital mechanism that link the Seasonal Footprinting Mechanism (SFM) (references) and Pacific Meridional Mode with ENSO (references).
In seasons like this year where the Atlantic is relatively cooler and more stable compared to the rest of the tropics, the Atlantic is less capable of generating "local" sources of latent heating, and thus is even more at the mercy of external forcing outside the basin. Below, I explain one ongoing example of how this is occurring via a Gill response to Eastern Pacific convection, which is enhancing westerly wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic.
Additionally, other secondary feedbacks from warm (or cool) SSTs are important to consider. For example, a decrease in Saharan Air Layer/dust and increase in solar radiation that warms the sea surface can be partly attributed to a deeper/more well-mixed boundary layer driven by warm SSTs & vis versa when the Atlantic is cooler. Another example are wind-evaporation-sst (WES) feedbacks, in which SST anomalies in the Eastern subtropical Atlantic (NW of Africa) propagate southwestward in late spring & summer to the tropical Atlantic (references). WES feedbacks are also a vital mechanism that link the Seasonal Footprinting Mechanism (SFM) (references) and Pacific Meridional Mode with ENSO (references).
In seasons like this year where the Atlantic is relatively cooler and more stable compared to the rest of the tropics, the Atlantic is less capable of generating "local" sources of latent heating, and thus is even more at the mercy of external forcing outside the basin. Below, I explain one ongoing example of how this is occurring via a Gill response to Eastern Pacific convection, which is enhancing westerly wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic.
FORECAST
Given all of the aforementioned information and factors that may significantly influence this year's Atlantic Hurricane Season, I am expecting a generally quieter Atlantic Hurricane Season overall than the past several years. However, despite the relative lack of basin-wide activity, the large-scale steering pattern appears to be more favorable than usual for a greater proportion of storms to potentially threaten landmasses further to the west, including the US Coast.
The current hurricane season forecast calls for just over 100 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) units, comprising roughly 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes. If this forecast verifies, 2025 would be the 3rd quietest Atlantic Hurricane Season in the last decade and near to slightly below average compared to the ongoing active multidecadal era (1995-present).
The current hurricane season forecast calls for just over 100 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) units, comprising roughly 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes. If this forecast verifies, 2025 would be the 3rd quietest Atlantic Hurricane Season in the last decade and near to slightly below average compared to the ongoing active multidecadal era (1995-present).
Greater-than-normal chances for tropical cyclone activity are heavily favored over the Southwestern and West-Central Subtropical Atlantic, especially near and just off the US East Coast. Lesser, but still positive tropical cyclone track density anomalies are also favored over the far Western Caribbean & Bay of Campeche. Equal chances for above or below average activity are also indicated in most of the East-Central Tropical Atlantic, with below average tropical cyclone activity favored in/around the East-Central Gulf of Mexico.
2025 (Weighted) Hurricane Season Analog Forecast:
Tropical Cyclone Track Density Anomalies
Tropical Cyclone Track Density Anomalies
2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
Considering the large-scale stability issues, SST pattern, and potential re-development of La Nina later in the fall, a more "backloaded" Atlantic Hurricane Season also seems to be favored this year, with a greater than usual amount of tropical cyclones occurring after early to mid September or so.
The forecast large-scale 500mb height anomaly pattern on the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) ensemble mean through the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season also tends to be consistent with hurricane seasons that feature a greater proportion of landfalling hurricanes on the US. The persistent blocking ridge forecast over the Canadian Maritimes in particular suggests a much greater chance of hurricane threats near the US East Coast, which is consistent with historical behavior about two years removed from a prior El Nino event. Additionally, the somewhat more hostile conditions for tropical development this year may allow tropical disturbances to "sneak" closer to landmasses further west before developing in earnest. Thus, despite the lack of basin-wide activity this year compared to recent seasons, the tropical cyclones that do develop in the Atlantic this year may be much more likely to threaten landmasses to the west, including the US.
Regardless of the seasonal forecast though, everyone in hurricane prone areas should be prepared and have a hurricane plan in place just in case a storm arrives at your doorstep later this year.
Regardless of the seasonal forecast though, everyone in hurricane prone areas should be prepared and have a hurricane plan in place just in case a storm arrives at your doorstep later this year.